Chance check
Any player has some kills that look unusual. The chance check asks whether a player has more than chance predicts.
Is this more unusual than chance?
Reading the count
Five in a hundred is ordinary. Ten in a hundred is twice what chance predicts. The check shows both numbers side by side and leaves the judgment to a person.
A ratio is only shown once enough kills are measured, because small samples swing wildly.
What it is
By definition, about 5 in every 100 ordinary kills fall in the most extreme 5% of any one measurement. So a player with 100 measured kills should have around 5 in that band for each measurement. The chance check counts how many of a player's kills are in the band and sets that next to the number expected.
Why it matters
A list of unusual kills sounds alarming even for a normal player. The expected count turns it into something a reader can judge: five of a hundred is ordinary, ten times that is not.
How Overshoot keeps it honest
A ratio is only shown once enough kills are measured, because small samples swing wildly. Kills from the same player and match are not independent, so the count is a guide for a person to read, not a statistical verdict.
Where it is used
This check is in the research fact sheet today. It is not in the app yet.
What this cannot tell you
- Kills from one player are not independent, so odds quoted from chance alone overstate certainty.
- It says how much unusual there is, not what caused it.
- It depends on the quality of the ordinary-player reference.